Meeting with Advisor (5/5)

1. Potential Outline for Dissertation

1. Importance of Energy (general introduction)
2. Input-output Structural Decomposition Analysis (gneral, methodology)
3. Energy Analysis in Korea
4. Emissions Analysis in Korea
5. Energy and Emission Policies in Korea
6. Conclusion or Summary

2. Next Goal

Focuse on writing up chapter 2. I-O SDA. There are plenty of literatures available about this. Review them and find strength and weakness of this analysis. Then suggest my own approach.

3. House Keeping

Fall internship and possible delay of study plan. I will contact someone who is in charge of the fellowship.

Personal Best: Hudson Small Mouth Bass

Inspired by the yesterday success, I went fishing after school again. In the expectation to catch striper, I casted the same swimbait to the same spot. Believe it or not, I caught this huge small mouth bass at the same spot after couple of castings! It bit my lure so hard near shore. You can see my Leatherman multi-tool, which is 8 inch long. It was fat, too. It is definitely my personal best for sure. It is such a joy that I can catch big fish where is so close to my place in short outing.

Fishing in front of my apt.

I was frustrated from reading at school today. So, I came back home a bit early and went fishing near by my apartment. There is a bridge, and I fished under the bridge. The spot is one minute distance from my place (that's the reason why I moved to this new apt ;-). I have not fished there before, and decided to venture the spot today. The spot seemed promising for striper fishing, because there is always strong current.

I casted a 4" swimbait (Storm, Wild eye shad). After about 7 minute, I got a strong bite. It was clearly one of striper's. Yes, I caught a 18" baby striper. I didn't really expect to catch anything. What a surprise! I casted couple of other swimbaits, but didn't get any bite. Then came back home. It was short outing, but successful. (You can see Troy downtown at background)

First Sturgeon

I went out for striped bass with Captain M. yesterday night. What we did was first, we caught some herring for bait, and secon we did bait fishing with live herring. As soon as we cast the bait, we got strong bites. But not striper's strong bite; most of them were catfish's. We tried cut baits, too, but didn't make results. I was bored and started jigging with my bucktail jig. After dozens castings, bam! I got a strong bite. It really pull out my line. At that time, I was using light tackles (Medium power 6'6" rod and 2500 size reel). It was not easy to handel the strong fight on a small canoe. At first, I though that it was walleye. Wrong. Surprise to me, it was Hudson sturgeon! Nice. It was my first sturgeon. After taking quick picture, we released it. We didn't catch any striper, it was a worthy trip.

Environmentally Friendly Fisherman

During this earth week, I consider about my sports, fishing. Here is the list of my pledge:

• Whenever I stand by shore, I will appreciate all kinds of joy that Mother Nature allow me through the wonderful sports, fishing.
• While I fish, I will always remain calm and quiet in order to be a part of nature.
• I will always clean up where I stay before and after I fish.
• I will carefully practice catch and release.
• I will respect every species of fish which form a tight ecosystem all together.
• I will treat caught fish carefully to reduce harm as much as I can.
• I will consider the use of barbless hook to minimize damage to my catch. (I try to buy barbless hook at local store, but I could not find. Do anyone know maker of good barbless hook?)
• When I need fish for the small joy on my family’s dinner table, I will harvest only the necessary minimum.
• When my tackle gets snagged, I will recover as long line as possible before I cut my line by pulling my line slowly.
• When I re-spool, I will recycle old mono line.
• I will always be cautious about choice of my tackle not only to catch fish but also to reduce environmental burden.
• I will encourage others to fish to share my joy of fishing and appreciation of nature.

Meeting with Advisor (4/22), Forecasting

1. Question and Answer
(1) About forecasting

I asked about how to forecast? or which method is the right way of forecasting. This question came out because some economists and scientists claim that we cannot correctly forecast future variation with model, although we well understand cause and effect relationship between target variable and some explanatory variables. Simply thinking, when we know cause-effect relationship, we can predict results from certain causes. For example, when we drop eggs, they will be broken. We know the relationship between the activity and results, and the relationship always holds under usual environment.

However, the issue is to forecast complex system. Because there are so many uncounted variables, it is problematic to forecast with a model which explains only a few causal relationship in the system. Economic forecasting is the example.

Therefore, instead using models, scenario analysis can be useful. First, setting up some plausible scenarios, and then we can make forecast in each scenario. Understanding causal relationship is crucial in forecasting, but causal relationship itself cannot make a good forecast.

(2) Making a hybrid unit table

I found input-output table for Korea in money term and energy balance table in TOE term (ton of oil equivalent). I am trying to combine them and make a hybrid unit table. It seems a mechanical task, but there are many things to consider: dividing datum for a sector to several subsectors, putting new energy rows and so on. For a solution, I can consider rectangular matrix (non square); in this way, I can put more energy rows than energy industry column.

(3) Input-Output Analysis and SDA

How much should I know about IOA in order to do SDA? I may need know all the basics of IOA, but not detail. Mostly, I need focus on IOA techniques instead reasoning.

2. Next Goals
a. Making a pilot hybrid unit table
b. Keep reading Miller and Blair, and Miernyk

c. Reading application papers of SDA

3. House Keeping
a. I borrowed one book:
Miller et al. 1989. Frontiers of Input-output analysis. Which includes Faye Duchin's article.

Frist Striped Bass in this season!

I went striper fishing with Captain M to the Troy dam yesterday afternoon. I casted hair jigs and swimbaits. After fruitless 40 minutes, we decided to leave. At the final moment, I caught one, 5 or 6 pounder. It was a small schoolie, but nice enough to make my day. It is so shiny in this picture. You can see the lure at its mouth. After taking this picture, I released it. It was short outing, but I caught the first striper in this season. Good start!

ps. Capt. M's goal of this season is 200 stripers. Mine? I don't know, I am still a novice of striper fishing. I hope I can catch at least one at every outing.